- HDD Units relatively flat in 400Mu unit range for past 2 years (down from 2010 peak ~600M Units) . Less PCs sold and SSD encroachment in notebooks reduced TAM.
- HDD Capacity increasing 15% per year or more
- HDD Mission critical (10K+15K) units down 25% from peak in 2012, Revenue down 50%
- HDD Mission critical (10K+15K) capacity is flat for past 2 years
- HDD PC Capacity is relatively flat for past few years. CE and Enterprise Capacity is up.
- HDD Cost and price per TB is down 12%+ per year. 500GB HDDs sell for less than $30 to PC OEMs
Lots more data available and how this affects the NAND/SSD market over the next few years
- 10K and 15K market should be dead. SSDs are better and lower price per IOP... but its a slow death (Even though HDD makers
- SSDs should be this entire market with 25M units or more per year
- SATA/PCIe will take this over in next 3-5 years
- HDD Nearline market is growing rapidly with little impact from SSDs expected. >6TBs per drive at a cost well below $30/TB and costs dropping 10-15% per year. The date explosions is driving this market for storage
- Now that NAND shortage is over, we expect SSDs resume steady penetration into PC market. Most PCs still ship with HDDs today.
- We are still several years away from SSD units outselling HDD Units . 10+ years from SSD capacity outselling SSD capacity