Wednesday, January 3, 2018

SSD Growth Forecast in Compute Markets: Client Notebooks

SSD sales are growing and attach rate is increasing in all compute markets. The question is: How Fast? How Much?     

Projections for SSDs from a number of outlets are 15-19% unit growth and 15-20% Revenue growth. We have all the details behind those numbers if you want them but some specifics on attach rates. 

Client Notebook SSD attach rate finished 2017 just around 50%, climbing from 20% in 2014. For 2018 we predict continued steady growth fueled by SSD/NAND price drops. The average attach rate for 2018 will exceed 55%  ... growing to almost 70% by end of 2019..... if NAND Prices start to drop as expected. No tipping point is coming.... 

Reasons for methodical increase: 

  • SSD $/GB Pricing is still 8x HDD Pricing
  • SSD Prices are dropping but so are HDD prices. SSD $/GB multiplier is 3x HDD in 2021
  • Many people still want large capacity drives
  • SSD performance is better than HDD, but it is not required for any application
For details on attach rates, SSD pricing, HDD pricing, and cost assumptions over the next 5 years, contact us!

Side note: at this point, we dont see an impact of Optane SSDs or Memory on these numbers. Optane doesn't impact notebook market at this time. See Desktop report summary for impact on that market.

Mark Webb

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